Odds are that one of the 32 NFL head coaches will be fired before the end of the season. And currently those odds favor New Orleans Saints coach Dennis Allen.
The Saints coach, in his third season in New Orleans, is the favorite to lose his job first at odds of 11-4 (+275) with sportsbooks. Dallas Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy is second at 6-1. Tampa Bay Bucs head coach Todd Bowles (8-1) and both New York head coaches Brian Daboll (Giants) and Robert Saleh (Jets) at 9-1 round out the top five with the betting offers.
Allen is 17-18 in his first two years with the Saints. If he is fired this year it would mirror what happened to him in his first go-round as a head coach. Allen became head coach of the then Oakland Raiders in 2012. After two losing seasons, he began his third year 0-4 and was given the boot. If the Saints start slowly this season it could happen again.
What needs to happen to see a coach fired?
For a coach to get fired during the season it takes a number of components. Obviously, a losing record, the team not meeting expectations, an impatient owner with an itchy trigger finger and someone on the coaching staff ready to take over.
McCarthy, Bowles, and the two New York coaches could be safe for any number of reasons.
Say what you will about Cowboys owner Jerry Jones but he has never fired a coach during the season. Would McCarthy, one of just seven active coaches to win a Super Bowl, be the first? That’s doubtful.
Bowles, despite just a 17-17 overall record in his two seasons as head coach of the Bucs, has won the NFC South in both of his years. It would take a really miserable start to the season for the team to make a move.
Is Robert Salah in trouble if the Jets have a slow start?
The Jets are likely to ride it out for the season with Saleh, but if the longest playoff drought in all four major sports continues, Saleh, general manager Joe Douglas and the rest of the Jets front office will all be in trouble at the end of the season.
Is Brian Daboll on the hot seat with the Giants?
Daboll was Coach of the Year in 2022. Has he fallen that far? The Giants are going to be bad. If they’re embarrassingly bad, that Coach of the Year award might not be enough to save him.
Surely Eagles’ Sirianni is safe, right? Right? Maybe not
Go a little further down the list to the Philadelphia Eagles and Nick Sirianni (10-1). Despite three straight playoff appearances and a Super Bowl appearance, fans, some in the media and some people in the organization wanted the head coach gone last year when a 10-1 start to the season ended with six losses in their last seven games. Owner Jeff Lurie supported his head coach and brought him back.
But a slow start to the season and that support could wane. A recent story about the friction between Sirianni and his quarterback Jalen Hurts doesn’t help, either. Lurie does not like negative talk about his team and while he doesn’t necessarily listen to the fans’ voices he wants them on his side. At odds of 10-1, this might not be a bad bet.
Where should New Jersey bettors place their cash?
| First Head Coach Fired | Current Odds | Odds July 17 |
| Dennis Allen | 11/4 (+275) | 7/1 |
| Mike McCarthy | 6/1 | 6/1 |
| Todd Bowles | 8/1 | 10/1 |
| Brian Daboll | 9/1 | 9/1 |
| Robert Saleh | 9/1 | 5/1 |
| Nick Sirianni | 10/1 | 8/1 |
| Kevin Stefanski | 12/1 | 10/1 |
| Matt Eberflus | 12/1 | 7/1 |
| Antonio Pierce | 14/1 | 10/1 |
| Sean McDermott | 14/1 | 12/1 |
| Doug Pederson | 16/1 | 25/1 |
| Sean Payton | 20/1 | 12/1 |
| Jonathan Gannon | 25/1 | 16/1 |
| Kevin O’Connell | 25/1 | 12/1 |
| Mike McDaniel | 33/1 | 25/1 |
| Mike Tomlin | 33/1 | 25/1 |
| Sean McVay | 33/1 | 25/1 |
| Zac Taylor | 33/1 | 14/1 |
| John Harbaugh | 50/1 | 50/1 |
| DeMeco Ryans | 66/1 | 66/1 |
| Matt LaFleur | 66/1 | 50/1 |
| Shane Steichen | 66/1 | 50/1 |
| Brian Callahan | 100/1 | 100/1 |
| Dan Campbell | 100/1 | 100/1 |
| Dan Quinn | 100/1 | 100/1 |
| Dave Canales | 100/1 | 100/1 |
| Jerod Mayo | 100/1 | 100/1 |
| Jim Harbaugh | 100/1 | 100/1 |
| Kyle Shanahan | 100/1 | 100/1 |
| Mike Macdonald | 100/1 | 100/1 |
| Raheem Morris | 100/1 | 100/1 |
| Andy Reid | 500/1 | 500/1 |
If you are going to look outside the local teams (Eagles, Giants, Jets), Allen looks like the best bet. While McVay won’t get fired after his two Super Bowl appearances and a title, he could walk away, which would be interesting to see if that would count.
